A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Carlyle Group (CG Quick QuoteCG - Free Report) . Shares have added about 0.8% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Carlyle due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Carlyle's Q3 Earnings Surpass Estimates, Revenues & AUM Increase Y/Y

The Carlyle Group reported third-quarter 2024 post-tax distributable earnings per share of 95 cents, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 9.2%. The figure compared favorably with earnings of 87 cents per share reported in the year-ago quarter.

Results benefited from an increase in segment fee and realized performance revenues. A rise in assets under management balance also offered support. However, an increase in expenses was a headwind.

Net income attributable to Carlyle was $595.7 million compared with $81.3 million reported a year ago.

Carlyle’s Revenues & Expenses Increase

Segmental revenues were $895 million, up 15.2% from the year-ago quarter's level. The top line topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1%.

Total segment fee revenues were up 6.8% year over year to $590.2 million. An increase in transaction and portfolio advisory fees, as well as fee-related performance revenues, led to the increase.  

Realized performance revenues surged 52.9% from the year-ago quarter to $275.9 million. 

Total segmental expenses increased 29% to $527.9 million. The increase was due to a rise in almost all components of segment expenses, except for depreciation and amortization expense and interest expenses.

Carlyle’s Total AUM Rises

As of Sept. 30, 2024, total AUM was $447.4 billion, up 17% from the prior-year quarter's figure. 

Fee-earning AUM was $313.6 billion, up 14.9% year over year.

Carlyle’s Capital Distribution Activities

In the reported quarter, CG repurchased and retired 1.7 million shares of common stock for $150.5 million.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.

The consensus estimate has shifted -5.05% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Carlyle has an average Growth Score of C, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a B. However, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Carlyle has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Carlyle is part of the Zacks Financial - Investment Management industry. Over the past month, Artisan Partners Asset Management (APAM Quick QuoteAPAM - Free Report) , a stock from the same industry, has gained 0.4%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended September 2024 more than a month ago.

Artisan Partners reported revenues of $279.6 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +12.4%. EPS of $0.92 for the same period compares with $0.75 a year ago.

Artisan Partners is expected to post earnings of $0.76 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -2.6%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) for Artisan Partners. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of C.